Touros do petróleo WTI de olho em US$ 83.00
A preocupação com a oferta global mais restrita provocada pela escalada do conflito no Médio Oriente poderá impulsionar os preços do petróleo neste início de semana
Are there chances for the continuation of the oil’s rise?
2019-11-11 • Atualizado
The oil market is unstable in the environment of trade wars, increasing US oil output, and other negative geopolitical factors.
On Friday oil plunged to the lowest level in more than two weeks. Such a plunge was caused by the escalation of trade wars tensions. Mr. Trump announced his willingness to impose extra $100,000 tariffs on the Chinese goods. Moreover, the increasing US output constantly weighs on the oil market endangering efforts of the OPEC countries and their allies. US energy companies added 11 oil rigs in the week to April 6. It was the biggest weekly addition in about two months. The total number became 808, the highest level since March 2015.
However, today crude oil managed to recover: WTI climbed above $63.30, Brent is trading at $68.50.
But traders should not rely on such figures. Risks still prevail in the market. Oil’s rise is not anticipated to continue for a long time. Trade wars tensions remain the biggest problem for the oil market. As soon as the trade wars will escalate, the oil benchmarks will decline. Moreover, despite the fact that OPEC and its allies declared a possibility to continue their oil output policy, the rising number of US oil inventories pull oil prices down.
Another negative factor that can put pressure on oil prices is Bahrain oil. On Sunday Bahrain announced a new discovery of at least 80 billion barrels of tight oil that is as much as Russia’s entire reserve. If Bahrain starts to sell its oil in such amount, OPEC and allies will not be able to stop the oil fall.
Hedge funds had already cut their WTI net-long position. Long positions declined by 7.4% because funds lost the largest number of bulls in almost a year, short positions increased the most since August.
Let’s look at the forecast.
Banks raised their forecasts for oil prices. According to 15 banks that were surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, the average price for Brent is at $63 a barrel, WTI is anticipated to trade at $59 a barrel this year.
For the next year, banks predict the fall of Brent to $61, before reaching $62 by 2020.
Making a conclusion, we can say that the oil prices will stay volatile until there is a swing between OPEC and allies’ output policy on the one side and trade tensions together with rising output in other countries on the other side. As the oil market is sensitive to news, it is worth to pay attention to it. It is a good chance to make a profit on the volatile market. But traders should be careful, such volatility can cause big losses as well.
Semelhante
Incertezas no Oriente Médio fazem os preços do petróleo subirem
O cumprimento dos cortes de produção da OPEP+ aumentou, com as exportações a caírem cerca de 900.000 barris em fevereiro, o nível mais baixo desde agosto/23
Touros do WTI lutam para encontrar aceitação acima dos US$ 74.00
A produção de petróleo dos EUA estabeleceu um recorde de 13,3 milhões de barris por dia em dezembro, antes de recuar para 12,6 milhões de bpd em janeiro devido às tempestades de inverno
Últimas notícias
Ofertas de Empregos Jots no radar dos touros do dólar
Depois da queda no mês de março em cerca de 26 mil vagas de emprego, a expectativa do mercado é de nova queda para 8,790M para o mês de fevereiro do mesmo ano
Investidores de olho no PMI Industrial do ISM
Nesta segunda-feira, primeiro dia do mês de abril, os EUA liberam os números dos PMIs da S&P Global e do ISM para a indústria
As expectativas dos mercados giram em torno do PCE dos EUA
Todas as atenções estarão nos preços básicos do PCE (núcleo) dos EUA, que excluem alimentos e energia para o mês de março, com a expectativa de que os números venham abaixo do mês anterior, que registraram um aumento de 0,4%
