AUD/USD: near-term and long-term forecasts from banks

AUD/USD is trading sideways this week within the range between 0.7470 and the tail of 100-day MA at 0.7515. Tomorrow Aussie-watchers will be focused on Australia’s labor market data which can show slow earnings growth, and weaken AUD in the short-term. Also, there will be the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Review coming out at 4:30 am MT time.

Citi

Citi analysts are bearish on AUD/USD in the short-term. They expect a drop towards 0.72 – 0.73 area, once the pair breaks 0.7409

NAB

NAB analysts suggest 4 reasons of the recent AUD weakness:

1. The RBA’s statement delivered on 4 April acknowledged the weakening in Australia’s labor market and removed any risk of higher interest rates over the next year.

2. Geopolitical tensions were pressuring the Aussie since last Friday (after the launch of US missiles on Syrian airbase). There is a risk of further escalation of the conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region and in the Middle East. It will be a significant headwind for AUD in the near-term.

3. Continued economic slack of China’s economy (there were signs of softening in China data). Australian commodity export prices are likely to come under pressure over this and next year.

4. The breach of significant supports in the 0.7580-85 area opened the way towards lower levels at 0.7480/0.7470.  

NAB’s tips

NAB analysts don't recommend getting too bearish despite the numerous fundamental factors that we’ve listed above. They suggest targeting AUD/USD at 0.75 for end-Q2, 0.73 for end Q3 and 0.70 for Q4.

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