2020-07-13 • Updated
The pair failed to move in one direction for more than two days in three weeks. How to trade it?
The Euro has started the week with the positive footing. Then it dropped, but met the support at 1.1300 and bounced back. Now it’s moving upward.
However, if we look at the weekly chart, we will notice that it will meet soon the strong resistance at the 200-week moving average at 1.1330. EUR/USD has been unable to close above this level for over a year. If EUR/USD breaks it through, bulls will win and the pair may surge higher to the next resistance at 1.1366. Support levels are 1.1300 and 1.1269.
There is no big news today that can make EUR/USD volatile. We can assume that the current risk-on sentiment is likely to drive the Euro higher. Only on Thursday the EUR will get the fresh stimulus after the ECB statement. The single currency highly depends on the central banks’ economic guidelines. If the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde gives the optimistic outlook and calls for clear governments’ actions, it will push the Euro higher. In opposite if the economic forecast is dire and hopeless, the Euro will decrease.
Also, the USA imposed new tariffs on French imports in a response to the French digital services’ tax. If European-American tensions deteriorate, it may weigh on the Euro.
If we compare coronavirus rates in both Europe and the USA, the United Sates has grimmer situation. As a result, it will allow the EU economic activity to recover faster. This will be positive for the Euro.
To sum up, look for the break out above the 1.3300 and go long. Otherwise, if the pair fails to cross this level, go short. Remember to follow the ECB statement this Thursday at 15:30 MT time.
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Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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