2021-04-05 • Updated
The last week has ended with greater-than-expected NFP, but weaker average hourly earnings. 916,000 people were employed during March, while the forecast was only 647,000. Average hourly earnings dropped by 0.1%, whereas growth of 0.1% was anticipated. As a result, since NFP comes better, but earnings – worse, the USD will spike at first, but it will fall with the second wave.
Europe’s poor vaccination rollout and prolonged lockdowns keep pressing down the EUR. Unlike the EU, the USA is in a much better position. Biden claimed a goal of 200 million vaccinations in his first 100 days and unveiled the 2$ trillion infrastructure plan. As a result, Treasury yields surged. And as we know, rising yields would push the US dollar up.
According to ING, EUR/USD is likely to dip further this week. So far, support at 1.1700 has been held, but the pair may break down to the low of 1.16 this week.
EUR/USD is moving in a descending channel. On the weekly chart, the way down is constrained by the 50-week moving average of 1.1735. If it manages to break it and then crosses 1.1700, it should fall to November’s low at 1.1630. On the flip side, if it crosses the high of April 2 at 1.1790, it may jump to the 200-day moving average of 1.1870.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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